Posted by
GenXDad on Thursday, February 07, 2008 1:54:26 PM
Now that Romney has dropped out, we can focus our energy on the real enemy, the Democrats.
An interesting phenomenon is going on in the Democratic race. After Edwards dropped out, most of his support went to the surging Obama, who overtook Clinton in the national polls on the eve of Super Tuesday. After pulling out a "tie," Clinton has
opened up a lead on Obama. (No doubt this is due to Ann Coulter's big endorsement, right?)
I have a theory on this, which I'd call the "California Effect." Obama won more states and more delegates, but Clinton won the big prize of California, so she was the effective winner. Similarly, McCain's lead in the national polls was reflected in his 8-point win in the Golden State. So goes California, so goes the nation, at least in primary politics, and perhaps vice-versa.
So while Clinton probably lost "Super Tuesday" by most statistical measures, she won the perception battle, which is reflected in her current surge in momentum, and that perception battle is because of California. On the GOP side, McCain became the dominant winner primarily because he won so big in the Golden State. Finally, California has some clout! Apparently, it has a LOT of clout. In fact, I'd go so far as to say California will choose both nominees. (One could argue, and it's probably true, that Florida decided the GOP race and California settled the deal, but at any rate it played a HUGE and decisive role.)
It's interesting to note the number of pundits who have jumped on the Obama bandwagon, including a lot of GOP pundits. Those who watch the races closely, such as Dick Morris, put their money on Clinton, and for good reason. She has the built-in advantages of the "Clinton Machine" and the female vote. She will absolutely win the "super delegate" battle. And, thanks to California, she now has the momentum.
I see three scenarios. Scenario one, the Democratic race goes virtually neck-and-neck all the way to the convention, but with an ever-so-slight edge to Clinton. She'll go into the convention with a slight lead in delegates, bot not a majority. The "superdelegates" put her over the top, and she's a significantly weakened nominee. For Republicans, this is a "best case scenario." I'd add it's also the most likely one. 40% chance this happens.
Scenario two, the Clinton Slime Machine pulls out some dirt on Obama and it sticks. Who knows, maybe the Republicans, concerned with the prospect of facing Obama, will offer an assist. If there's something out there, I can't imagine the Clintons not using it, and it would come out soon. In this scenario, Obama drops off and Clinton wins a comfortable majority of the delegates long before the convention, giving her plenty of time to mend fences within the Democratic Party. I'd say this is the second most likely scenario. 35% chance of happening.
Secnario three, Clinton screws up. Either an attempt to slime Obama backfires, she pulls one too many crying episodes, Bill sticks his foot in his mouth one too many times, or a new Clinton scandal emerges and Obama decides to bring it out in the primary. (I would say there's a 90% chance of a Clinton scandal, or seven, coming out during the general election cycle.) In this case, Clinton supporters reject her and go to Obama, who comes out with just enough delegates to get a majority before the convention and he's the nominee. This could happen, and the odds of it happening are significant, but the odds are better than even that it won't. 25% chance, by my estimation.
So right now, the odds are good (probably 75%) for a Clinton nomination, which should go far towards unifying the Republican Party, even if McCain has trouble mending fences.